Trends and Prospects in the EU’s Cow’s Milk Marketed to Dairies

Abstract :

The paper aimed to analyze the dynamics of raw cow's milk delivered to dairies (RCMD) in the EU-28 and the top 10 producing countries in the period 2009-2018 using the Eurostat data and fixed basis indices, and descriptive statistics. Also, average milk yield (AMY) and the number of dairy cows (NDC), and their impact on RCMD using correlation and determination coefficients, and regression equations. Finally, it estimated RCMD for the 2019-2023 horizon. In the EU, RCMD increased accounting for 160.28 million tonnes in 2018, while the NCD declined. The contribution of the top producing countries to the EU's RCMD is: Germany 19.7%, France 15.9%, United Kingdom 9.5%, Netherlands 8.7%, Italy 7.9%, Poland 7.5%, Spain 5%, Ireland 4.9%, Denmark 3.5% and Belgium 2.5%. AMY was 6,997 kg at the EU level in 2018, but much higher in Denmark, Netherlands, Spain, United Kingdom, Germany and Belgium. Between RCMD and AMY it was found a strong and positive coefficient of correlation, r > 0.776, except Italy (r = 0.125). Between RCMD? and NDC, the correlation coefficient was higher than 0.733 in Ireland, Poland, Netherlands, United Kingdom and Belgium, in France 0.5, and in Germany, Italy and Spain, it was below 0.266. The regression equations and R2 >0.5 proved that AMY has a deep influence on RCMD, in almost all the countries, except Italy, and that NCD comes on the 2nd position. In 2023, the EU will supply 157.18 Million tonnes, taking into account the Brexit.